In Mindanao violence just lurks below the surface. Scratch it a little and violence will flare out. The government promised the MILF and when it seemed it cannot deliver tension emerged. Mindanao simply has too many unresolved conflicts for this not to happen.
Knowledgeable observers say the current Moro response is a show of frustration and a show that it is still a fighting force. I will add that a sizable portion of the Moro fighting groups is not comfortable with the peace talks thinking they will just be playing into government hands and that government cannot really deliver after all.
Many know that Abduraman Macapaar alias Commander Bravo belongs to this mold. A former commander of MNLF-BMA's 2nd Division based in Ranao (their preferred name), he transferred his forces in bulk when Nur Misuari signed the peace deal in 1996. Known as the the fiercest among the Muslim commanders in Lanao, his territory, the mountainous boundary of Lanao del Norte and Lanao del Sur remains unconquered up until this time, Erap's war in 2000 notwithstanding.
If Kauswagan was the flashpoint in 2000 it remains to this day. It was in Kauswagan where the Tacub Massacre happened in 1971 when a convoy of Muslim voters were waylaid in Tacub, Kauswagan by suspected Ilagas where most of the victims were women and children, a crime that remains unresolved until today. No Tacub resident will ever admit that he lives or grew up in Tacub if Muslims are within vicinity.
When MILF-BIAF forces occupied Kauswagan in 2000 in response to the AFP attack on their base camp (which the government subsequently edited so that it won't show that they started the fighting) the homes of the Christians and government properties were left untouched except that they ransacked the police HQ. But when government forces retook the town Christians burned some houses that belonged to Muslims. Video showed in Iligan TV showed soldiers using blanket fire as they moved forward thus giving precise meaning to the word "clearing operations." The 2000 Census will bear out that a few Muslim barangays in Kauswagan showed zero inhabitants.
Christians in Luzon and Visayas will grit their teeth when news reports indicated that barbaric acts were done on the Christian casualties in Kauswagan. But knowledgeable but non-partisan elements in Mindanao will wondered who started the barbarism after all.
The military will claim that Muslim fighters occupied Christian villages like what happened in Aleosan, (North) Cotabato. But before we grit our teeth a word of caution first. We do not really know if those lands were Muslim land before Ilagas (an Ilonggo paramilitary group) drove them out in the '60s or when Muslims left their land during the war of the '70s to find in the '80s that their farms no longer belong to them and this is the usual sad story of Cotabato. Herein lies why violence and fighting never really cease in Cotabato like what the song of the group "Asin" lamented in the '70s.
They say that the MILF has no hold on their commanders. Partly true since basically Moro regular forces raise their own budget when OIC funding dried up. And maybe almost half of the Moro fighting forces are clan armies and not regulars.
Christians in Mindanao will say that they will arm their own militias as if Christian militias didn't exist before in the guise of Ilagas, the CAFGUs and the CVOs. But most Christian militias are of platoon-size only and bearing light machine guns at the most while most Muslim clan armies fight at company- and batallion-level and heavy machine guns, mortars, recoilless rifles and rocket launchers are common in their inventory . In Mindanao it is known that Christian militias are mincement for Muslim clan armies save for a few. In fighting between the two the AFP in all cases have to fight alongside the Christian militias. And if this happens it is but natural that regular Moro forces will join the fray because after they have relatives in the clan armies. And so the level of violence escalates.
But this is not to say that all Muslim clan armies fight alongside MILF and MNLF ranks. The Ampatuan, Mangudadatu and Dimaporo clan armies are among that fight alongside the AFP. But, of course, the government has to "pay" for these services.
They say in Iligan that if those 8 non-Christian barangays are included in the ARMM they will lose over 80% of their territory. But in 1898 Iligan only consists of the present city proper being a mere Spanish fort and a part of Misamis Oriental. Over the decades municipal districts emerged from the logging concessions when "peace" was established. Later these municipal districts were adhered to Iligan. And they never asked the non-Christians then if they wanted to be part of Iligan. But here comes modernity which says that a plebiscite must first be held before they are parted from Iligan. And there is no way a minority people (but once a majority) will ever win a plebiscite.
As long as Christians wave to the Muslims the Constitution and Transfer Certificates of Titles as their claim to "legitimacy" and "rule of law" there will be no peace in Mindanao. The peace that they chant is simply the peace of the conqueror. And the cycle of violence will just go on and on.
